Recent comments in /f/Futurology

crunchycrispy t1_jcyq6wa wrote

you just said the exact same thing i said.

i understand your argument “if 250 covers basic living expenses that should be the amount”. my original point was that there is no world where 250 covers basic living expenses. do you understand? it’s really simple. i’m saying the same thing you are, i’m just using real world numbers and you keep acting like we live in 1942.

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Surur t1_jcyn9yy wrote

> It's static because it's just statistics and probabilities.

Just like anything else.

> My mother doesn't know anything about how human intelligence works.

Exactly. So clearly you can make an AGI without knowing how it works also.

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Shiningc OP t1_jcym1qo wrote

It's static because it's just statistics and probabilities.

>This is obviously not true, since your mother made you, and she knows nothing about AGI.

I don't see what your point is. My mother doesn't know anything about how human intelligence works.

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FuturologyBot t1_jcylkih wrote

The following submission statement was provided by /u/filosoful:


Clean energy and technology can be exploited to avoid the growing climate disaster, the report says.

But at a meeting in Switzerland to agree their findings, climate scientists warned a key global temperature goal will likely be missed.

Their report lays out how rapid cuts to fossil fuels can avert the worst effects of climate change.

In response to the findings, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres says that all countries should bring forward their net zero plans by a decade. These targets are supposed to rapidly cut the greenhouse gas emissions that warm our planet's atmosphere.

"There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all," the report states.


Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/11wl83z/un_climate_report_scientists_release_survival/jcyh3rt/

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Surur t1_jcyks6i wrote

You write a definition and then you draw the wrong conclusion.

The main issue with LLM is that they are currently static (no continuous learning), though they do have in context learning, but otherwise they are pretty close to general intelligence. Current feed-forward LLM are not Turing complete, but once the loop gets closed they would be.

> Of course that an AGI could be created tomorrow, but first, we'll need to understand how the human intelligence works.

This is obviously not true, since your mother made you, and she knows nothing about AGI.

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filosoful OP t1_jcyh3rt wrote

Clean energy and technology can be exploited to avoid the growing climate disaster, the report says.

But at a meeting in Switzerland to agree their findings, climate scientists warned a key global temperature goal will likely be missed.

Their report lays out how rapid cuts to fossil fuels can avert the worst effects of climate change.

In response to the findings, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres says that all countries should bring forward their net zero plans by a decade. These targets are supposed to rapidly cut the greenhouse gas emissions that warm our planet's atmosphere.

"There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all," the report states.

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Manly_Walker t1_jcycesk wrote

At first I just ran on a paper trading API. After a couple months of it showing it wouldn’t go off the rails and make completely insane trades, I asked it to update the code for my real brokerage’s API and linked it to a new account with a very small amount of money deposited.

Edit: just realized I didn’t answer your question directly. Yes, it both identifies and executes trades, and then closes them when they meet certain profit/loss criteria.

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Skreame t1_jcybyr8 wrote

His argument is more philosophical. Sort of depends as I would argue people are already doing this by living vicariously through social media and that would slightly warp the general idea of “real life”, but only marginally and not entirely.

As far as this being some conspiracy as an attack on our idealogy as free thinking humans, one might expect the next step to be some immersed first person virtuality to isolate us, when in practicality it could very well just be more algorithms dictating our sociological structure to a point of generic and superficial existence. No advancement in tech needed.

To answer your question more directly for what it actually is asking, advancement in processing speed for computing is still plateaued. You might have heard of the great advancement in the change to silicon chips. While this material was a major boon to processors, the capability eventually hits a maximum value. This capability was further boosted through technological advancements in transitors, but Moore’s law is also subject to physical limits, which we are nearing currently.

Silicon has theoretical replacements that are much more conductive, such as cubic boron arsenide, though the material itself still has the problem of being viably manufactured at all, let alone at scale, as opposed to silicon being one of the most abundant elements on Earth.

This basically means we are not getting any major leaps in processing power without a substantial discovery and there is no real time estimate for that to my knowledge.

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whotheff t1_jcyap4u wrote

  1. Flash storage is a thing - Boot drive, gaming drive, SD card or anything
  2. Optical drives will probably survive if they pack some insane amount of storage space in a small form factor. Whatever they do, they will be too slow and only good for deep archiving.
  3. Mechanical HDDs will linger a few more years and then completely die, unless some niche appears, where they are better. Alternatively, some insane new technology might speed them up (but not very likely).
  4. Tape drives will outlive all of us :D They are still alive and developing.

There is a huge difference between home use and pro use. Home use will go completely in the cloud, while pro will remain on local storage. There will be a totally distributed network of computers, holding random bits of data, but it's too hard to predict what shape or use it will take. I suspect it will take a tiered approach, where fastest and most accesed data will be on flash, while least accessed data will be on tape or some future version of Blu-Ray.

Also, keep in mind that the definition of a true "backup" says that storing same data on at least two different physical locations, stored on two technologically different medias is considered as backed up.

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Robot1me t1_jcy65ej wrote

One main factor would be the technological progress in GPU power and affordability. In the scenario you described, having a potent GPU for VR + owning a VR headset in the first place would matter (unless it's optional). The VR space has a bit of a cliche image with "gimmick games", even when there are quite a few AAA titles (e.g. Half-Life Alyx). But since most people do not own a VR headset, the big game developers out there do not focus on it.

The second factor would be, at which point lower end GPUs and even consoles would be realistically capable of running large language models. As such a simulation game would require vast amounts of VRAM and computation (for both the graphics and the AI model). Once that would be realistically feasible, this would then catch the interest of (bigger) studios. It might be even from a passionate indie developer at some point, thanks to the massive leap in research and open-sourcing (e.g. on Huggingface)

>do we still have a good 10 or so years before something that really works comes out?

Frankly it's tough to say, and take my opinion with a grain of salt. Personally I think that it will take (at minimum) another console generation. In order to see mainstream adaption and the possibility of such a true-to-detail game. There will be surely games who will attempt this at least, until one nails it perfectly.

But in theory, such a game could still happen at any point. Sites like Character.ai exist, so if such things are done on the serverside, it could happen way sooner. There would be then just more strings attached, such as always-online requirement and requiring a subscription for the GPU calculation costs.

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