They’re going to do too little and it’s too late. Insurance corporations are going to squeeze ocean side communities and there will be a migration inland… worldwide…, and those are just the beginnings of our issues.

I think therapists will quickly disappear because it will be easy to create a human facsimile that can talk to you as if you were video chatting a real person. And, the facsimile can respond to you with empathetic expressions and tone that will make the experience feel warmer and more comfortable than a real person. Not to mention cheaper and always available.

And 1+1=2 is a non-probabilistic answer that can't be come up with probabilities.

I know a lot of people that really don't have the skills to make handcrafted items, so might they in reality be undercover robots?! Will prick them tomorrow and see if they bleed hydraulic fluid.... =)

Oh ya I'm just saying the pace will largely be dictated by economics, not just technical feasability.

I picked concrete mixers because machines are great at it, and yet it's still done by hand in much of the developing world because the economic situation hasn't caught up. Human labor is cheap is what I meant by people are cheap, sorry if that was confusing

Those who profit from burning down the planet will continue to do so.

We are easily replaceable in everything except as parents.

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And there are not nearly as many people mixing concrete by hand today as there were before the invention of the mechanical concrete mixer.

Sure not every instance of manual labor will go to robots for example when the job is too small to bother with just like someone might mix up concrete by hand for a small batch that is not worth renting a mechanical mixer.

But also, just like I can rent a concrete mixer from Home Depot for the weekend we will probably be able rent robots for the weekend too.

Personally I don’t look forward to the day when I am competing with 100 other people for the job of mixing up one bag of concrete because it’s not worth renting a robot to do it. Doing back breaking labor for Pennies because I am competing against robots and a ton of other people out of work.

We just gotta hope the toddler at the top doesn’t mess with the blocks

#100 is interesting. "2028 - Predictive policing: AI-driven tools analyzed crime data to predict and prevent criminal activity, enhancing public safety and resource allocation more effectively than traditional methods." Predictive policing... wouldn't that require preemptive due process?

100%, it makes engineering faster, not more real. the critical step outside of that is that AI makes the flow of ideation to execution more feasible if the cost of engineering is prohibitive enough to have made that flow infeasible in the past. this applies to RFCs as well. it's like the difference of having connected rooms in virtual reality because the environment suddenly upgraded to doors and opposable thumbs.

it doesn't take much for a layperson to hallucinate bad code via prompt right now, whereas the barrier for layperson to manifest any code used to be binary in the past. it's going to be even easier to subdivide an LLM prompt into chains of prompts. if one can load the respective codebase/docs as context (GPT-4 goes up to 32k tokens), the cost of hallucinating bad, but very relevant code, gets progressively cheaper.

right now, I expect any OSS community to progressively gain the ability to dogfood on whatever natural language the testers and powerusers are outputting. I think that major platforms, like social media, are quickly going to figure out that they can offer an experimental branch and not twiddle their thumbs around an unanswered user survey because of how easy it will be to transcribe sentiment & nuanced feedback from the comments.

point being, software doesn't impact the world because of how self-involved the team of a monolith is. software impacts the world when the modularity spikes (between many teams/firms and the larger market).

That was a fun read, and I am glad that bar tending is held in such high esteem by AI.

This is the thing that people seem to be blind to. Even if carbon capture was meeting its targets, fossil fuel use must also be reduced in order to stop the planet from further degradation. Yet some how most people seem to be completely oblivious to this and think carbon capture means we can keep using fossil fuels. It's absolutely fucking insane.

Fossil fuel become too scarce and expensive will shift the change. When the gas price was high, people were finding ways to reduce gss consumption. Apps like GasBuddy have more users. Google map started implementing fuel saving routes.

The problem is, it'll prob be too late if we wait for the gas reserve to dry up. Goverment subsidized people to trade their gas guzzler cars for a electric car would be a start.

the wicked cool thing about singularities is that it looks totally different depending on whether or not you're approaching it or watching someone else approach it from afar

some days I feel it pulling us, don't you?

If you ask a LLM, they would very well assign a probability to 1+1=2. That probability would not be 100, but would be very close.

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>something like the sims where you live in a town/map/world with 80-100 other simulated people, using AI which gives them personalities and can have conversations with the player.

I was thinking along the lines of an advance in interface technology. But you seem to be thinking more about advances in software?

• So in terms of rendering/visual realism, there are some pretty big jumps that are happening right now (e.g. Unreal Engine 5)

• In terms of creativity (if that's the right word?) we're also seeing some pretty big jumps in text to image software. It's reasonable to expect text to video will be progressing rapidly over the next few years as well.

• Gaming was a major driving force behind big advances on processing power. Also reasonable to think it can be a major driving force in the development of AI's... especially if the scenario you suggested becomes super popular.

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I've often felt that AI is a bit like virtual reality - it's promised a lot over the decades and is undoubtedly better than previous iterations, but it's still not a substitute for the real thing.

Take the example of code writing. It will help make engineering faster, but you still need to know what to ask for and then what do with it. Until AI can guess what we need and how and where we want it implemented, how can it really replace a human?

When, exactly, is the Singularity supposed to happen? I’d like to stay home that day.

That's a technicality.

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I make articles for websites ,live in Asia in enjoying life.