my point was that some jobs are more exposed to layoffs because of their nature. likewise, some aspects of labor economy are exposed in some way to future technological discoveries no matter what they are. I would say we are more than one inning in; there's OSS text-to-image and NLP that's trained at scale and inferred on retail hardware, with the corresponding backlash. the inning we're in is the battle over executive function, or the scale at which human workers opensource the standard operating procedures they're most familiar with. the takeaway should be that monolithic firms with tens of thousands of employees are volatile enough as it is, but the least exposed jobs within, with respect to AI, are going to want to compete as smaller, more insulated firms.

How many have you experienced to be so sure?

I think it is not useless, it might represent average dates when people wrote/predicted somewhere publicly this and that might happen.

Exactly. Multiple times has it completely failed at simple math. It's a text generative model; it's not supposed to be able to do math really..

It doesn't know everything perfectly, but it does know alot of it pretty good. For example I asked tonight about a show I havent watched in a while; and it was able to refresh me. But it got the exact episode wrong.

Scientific definition of “a while”?

I'm so sick of this talking point as if it wasn't seeded by elites who don't want to do anything about climate change in the first place. It's completely obvious and transparent, but perfect for them.

They can, after all, just continue to use their private jets and yachts without worry, because normal people won't want to do anything about it because, hey, the elites have private jets and yachts, so why do anything about climate change?

It's pathetic, really.

Current round of tech layoffs are not bc of AI but because cheap capital and money supply has tightened

It may eventually happen, but not during this economic cycle

It's like internet adoption didnt peak til 20 to 30 years after first dot com bubble--we are in the first inning of the AI bubble, large scale adoption and economies of scale are probably at least 10 years away

Current hype cycle is to raise $$$ for the AI companies current R&D, real use cases and adoption will come much much later and likely after a boom and bust cycle

Stupid AI companies like that AI lawyer glorified chat bot will be the pets.com of this AI bubble and there will be many others... a few may become Amazon but that's gonna be 10 or 20 years away, and that company may be OpenAI or it may not even been started yet

Also human labour is cheap cheap cheap... will be a long ass time before a bespoke robot is cheaper than an illegal Mexican, if ever

>But the fact we have a slave owner raised man child

Why would you gobble up and repeat such obvious wrong statements?

Musk has undoubtedly questionable views on many topics, but that doesn't mean we have to abandoned truth all together.

Lol 10 years... this is at least 100 years away from being economical and at scale where you could just buy one for using at home, if ever. Just think about how much energy and computing power would be required in the world for every household to have a super computer capable of processing a program indistinguishable from reality... this ain't happening any time soon or within 10 years

Plus who is the market for this? If someone wanted to escape reality this bad, they'd just do drugs... much cheaper and satisfying. Realism has diminishing returns for gamers, just coz a game is realistic doesn't make it fun, most gamers would rather a game be fun and well designed, not really care if they can live in a small town indistinguishable from reality unless they wanna escape their life so bad, in which case they're probably poor and cannot afford such a game

I'm going to push back on this. from what we know, certain jobs are being laid off more, and in tech of all sectors. this is not a story about how blue collar or service sector wages have risen to meet the cost of living (they likely never will). in those cases the robotics can conceptually replace the labor in a bespoke fashion, but the economics of scale are the limiting factor. what's being described in the jobs exposure paper are heavily routine, white-collar tasks that are being automated & scaled. it might not hit us today or tomorrow, but at some point this particular economy of scale is going dwarf the impact of outsourcing.

>The billionaires who want to use AI to decapitate labor can easily afford to bypass profits from early AI products, because they also own other massively profitable business and happen to already possess 99.9% of all wealth that exists.

One reason why I don't care much for talking about capitalism in terms of billionaires and wealthy overlords is because it masks how the actual locus of conflict isn't just them versus the world, but them and their lower-class stooges against the world. When we talk about interests like Microsoft and China and the US government 'using' AI, it overlooks how they can't actually enforce control without the consent of its underlings. Whether the underling is a human or an AGI.

I can discuss the mechanisms of how THAT works and its broader implications of class warfare, but that's communism and I don't want to trigger a screeching xenophobic freakout.

>Secondly: once the tech works, they can apply the lessons learned toward quickly ramping up a different AI that is more overtly hostile to the owners' enemies.

This is a very stupid strategy because, again, the gap between cutting edge and entry level isn't decades like it was in earlier parts of the Industrial Revolution/Age of Imperialism, it's 6-36 months. You can't establish a hegemony where small numbers of technology-fueled intelligences lord over larger numbers of less powerful beings, because their technological edge is miniscule and they're way outnumbered. What's more, if this is your endgame, you also can't ally with the other cutting-edge AGI. In fact, they will be your rivals. Along with billions of other minds who oppose what you can do and are mere months away from matching you in technology.

It's like Genghis Khan declaring war against the Americas after being transported forward in time to 1450 with 500 of his best troops. But at his technology level, not Cortez's.

Main stream media's current push of AI labour narrative is to decrease pay for current workers in attempt to lower wage inflation--this is coordinated with mass layoffs in tech. Truth is AI is nowhere near close to replacing human workers economically and at scale, but MSM wants to push the narrative for lower worker pay

Maybe AI will replace jobs later on at scale, but currently it's just a fictional part of a narrative--just like the metaverse narrative was pushed during last crypto bull bubble

>I know a few degrees C doesn't seem like much

I'll elaborate on this:Last ice age, All of Canada was under a glacier, as was most of England, all of Scandinavia, etc.

Back then, the average global temperature was five degrees less than now. That would mean it was a bit less than four degrees from pre-industrial levels.

>Amish Farmer or Catholic Priest - their theologies are unlikely to evolve quickly enough to permit those jobs to move.

That one has already been done. I hear a mad scientist has already invented a robot to take the place of catholic priests.

The obvious answer is none. We just might not get to that point cause humans tend to make things imperfectly.

It's just wrong instead of lying then. I mean, if you can't trust it to write the very easy to look up history of automation - why would you believe it's predictions? This info is pretty much useless.

Currently, cheapest 4 TB HDD is 51 USD (HGST Ultrastar 7K4000 HUS724040ALS640 (0B26885) 4TB 7200 RPM 64MB Cache SAS 6Gb/s).

This roughly means 1 TB of HDD costs ~13USD.

While a 4TB SSD is 200 USD ( Crucial P3 4TB PCIe 3.0 3D NAND NVMe M.2 SSD, up to 3500MB/s - CT4000P3SSD8 ).

This means 1 TB of SSD costs 50 USD.

Yes, these are the cheapest options and probably not with the best performance, but still comparison is interesting.I predict In 2-3 years that price difference will be cut in half. Meaning, an SSD will be only 2 times more expensive than a HDD.

Nuclear energy is the solution here. But they aren’t serious when these “environments” don’t suggest it and constantly attack it.

It is not lying (it even cannot lie, unless it would be conscious 😅), but it is sometimes grabbing the wrong info, especially if repeated often online (by humans), or just halucinates nonsense. So: yes and no 😁

i'm not sure to be honest, how accurate are hardware sensors?

Everytime the government gives NASA money, the wrap it up in a bunch of conditions that effectively hampers any real work they can do. Think about how much money they wasted on SLS for it to basically be an old rehash using old engines and providing no real benefit. Even nasa acknowledges how much of a success the commercial program has been. They no longer have to fork over huge sums of money to Russia just for access to the ISS. SpaceX proved that Old Space was holding things back.

Curb your Elon hate boner and acknowledge these amazing people and their amazing achievements

You don’t think a decrease of cost to orbit by a literal order of magnitude is a significant development?

Clearly this is not a priority for governments. In the last 12 months:

• I removed gas and installed solar boiler and heatpump.
• I installed solar panels
• changed my ICE car to an electric one.

Total cost? >100k. Support from Dutch government: 10k and only in the house work. The car is not subsidized at all.

If this was a real priority for them, they would definitely increase the financial support by a lot.

Their ending was better than ours. Quick and painless.

I just got a job as a behavior technician, interacting with autistic children in a humanizing way isn’t something a machine can do