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> We have almost reached the first critical 1.5C increase in global average temp.

What makes it "critical"?

Per this paper in Science there are no tipping points under 200 years and 4C of warming, so there's no clear evidence that 1.5C is any more important of a threshold than 1.4C or 1.6C.

1.5C is important because humans like round numbers, not for any physical reasons.

> What you interpret as pessimistic is what us realists call "the world has hardly done shit,"

Up until 5-10 years ago, yes. If you haven't paid attention to recent changes, I can see how you might have an outdated view of the situation.

Let's look at the data:

First, the IEA WEO projects a 20% emissions decline by 2030. That's using the mid-range scenario ("APS"), since clean energy progressed much faster than even their most optimistic scenario from 5 years ago, and their mid-range scenarios have in general been the closest for fossil fuels.

Second, coal consumption has been flat for a decade; with renewables accounting for virtually all net new power generation and over 100% of additional power generation expected by 2030, coal use is highly likely to decline in the near future (IEA's scenario has a 20% reduction by 2030).

Third, oil-burning car sales peaked 5 years ago and are in permanent decline. Per their analysis, EVs will become a majority of light vehicle sales around 2030, resulting in a permanent decline in oil consumption (peaking around 2024 and declining 5-10% by 2030).

Fourth, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has pushed Europe hard away from gas, and as a result gas is projected to decline 10% by 2030. Gas use doesn't have the strong structural headwinds of cheap renewables and EVs that are basically guaranteeing coal and oil declines, though, so this decline is less locked-in.

Fifth, clean energy investment is 2x fossil fuel investment, meaning the energy industry has heavily shifted towards clean energy.

Fundamentally, the transition to a renewables-dominant electrical grid and an EV-dominant car market is already in progress. The logistics of those two transitions are already pretty much baked in, meaning the significant declines in fossil fuel use they will cause are also pretty much baked in. It will take time to see those declines, but only because the world's power generation system and light vehicle fleet are so large that replacing them will take decades.

> But I am still not buying it.

Fortunately, it doesn't matter if you do. The logistics of these transformations are already in place, and as a result they're pretty much unstoppable at this point.

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I think in 100 years people will look back at history and not understand the concept of privacy.

The following submission statement was provided by /u/yh5203:

Submission Statement:

A cheating scandal erupted in Asian board game of Go in December, raising questions on regulating AI in the field of sport. Moreover, the story of how AI had completely changed the Go world in the past 7 years is a preview of the disruption that AI like GPT will bring on a global scale.

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1218yko/how_ai_turned_the_ancient_sport_of_go_upside_down/jdkwlob/

Nuclear takes decades to build

Any kind of EU backed space stations would end up government hell with many countries not seeing this as a benefit to their country and not supporting it and others fighting over who gets to build which part. Good luck getting this sorted out anytime soon.

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Lol at the Esa taking the lead. This is nothing more than a pipe dream. Europe does not have the ability to do any of this. They fight over the smallest things when it comes to any space project. Their only hope would be to partner with an American company to make one for them.

Submission Statement:

A cheating scandal erupted in Asian board game of Go in December, raising questions on regulating AI in the field of sport. Moreover, the story of how AI had completely changed the Go world in the past 7 years is a preview of the disruption that AI like GPT will bring on a global scale.

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I guess you could sell them now..But the value of AI art will rapidly decrease at it gets easier to use things like stable diffusion or midjourney. There is very little skill in writing prompts, so if someone is willing to buy AI art, if they find any means to make it themselves they will just do that instead

I have to do everything I can, my 3 year old daughter is going to be here in 2100. This is absolutely her future. Those people who don't care can be discouraging, but we have to try

I just hope we don't see them go after immigration (beyond essential skills) and even international trade. Increasingly locally-bound populations reduce contact between countries/cultures and civilizations and can spawn tensions and stereotypes.

Yes but I doubt they’ll have much value since you are not the only one that can type a text prompt.

What are you talking about? China gives zero fucks about IP rights. The US would also not reveal shit to them either when it comes to game-changing energy sources that could power our new military endeavors like optical weapons, energy weapons, etc.

I guess I worded it badly. From what I understand, you can sell them but currently you can't claim copyright on an image that hasn't been modified and only purely generated.

So unless you modify them somewhat after generating them or transform them, someone can legally sell them as well.

And ai is a new thing in terms of regulation. I wouldn't mention it just to avoid any future hassle.

Right now, we see an increasing amount of tourists choose neighboring countries, or even their own country, rather than warmer destinations. This means that destinations like Scandinavia houses more guests than they have in the last 15 years, right now. Particularly rented holiday houses and camping is booming, while hotels can't quite keep up.

Meanwhile, typical destination like southern Europe who have build an economy based on massive tourism, will struggle immensely.

As we become more environmentally aware, I don't think plane travel will be as dominant as it has in the past, not even for those who could still afford it.

Many have learned just how much local countries has to offer. When the recession turns around in this decade, I think many tourists will return to southern destinations, but not like it used to be.

We've changed how we are tourists for good.

We also see a massive trend that tourists seek out "real" experiences, rather than "touristy" attractions. Big all-inclusive hotels on the beach will decline. Tourism is developing to coexist with local customs, rather than define them. Cities like Barcelona has been destroyed by tourism, and it's a massive focus in the industry to change that. This will take more than a decade, but that's the direction were going, at least in Northern Europe.

VR is not an alternative to a holiday. I don't see it having any significant inpact on tourism in the coming decate, but if anything, I think showcasing destinations in VR will increase interest in travel.

Not sure where you’re getting that info from, according to DALLE 2 TOS you own and can sell and do whatever you please with it.

https://help.openai.com/en/articles/6425277-can-i-sell-images-i-create-with-dall-e

I guess at least two of us were disappointed then.

Is it POSSIBLE? Absolutely, there's nothing stopping you from wide format printing a bunch of images and hawking them at the local flea market.

Is there anything stopping you on the internet? Lots of places keep putting up 'no AI allowed' rules. These rules somewhat-stop you from doing AI-related business on their sites. A lot of these computer art sites don't deal in physical fine art paintings either, they're just the Wacom Tablet art outlet.

AI artists will have their own outlets in the near future, and people who are highly skilled in writing prompts will be able make some money prompting stuff on command for the clueless majority. People who are good at processing AI output in various ways will have an even larger market, "take this image collection you make and put it into my XYZABC123 for me."

What does too late mean to you?

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