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You’re comparing grown adults who make their own decisions to preschool children? Do you realize how weak of an argument that is?

second only, there is literally nobody working on the first problem anymore because it's not easy money.

That's just a fact.

Great article though

This is obviously not viable with our current technology. However, I have wondered about deploying a type of solar power collection in space.

With the cost of putting things in space significantly dropping (thanks space X), microwave energy might start making sense.

>I imagine that it will be just good enough to convince business leaders to replace all their workers with it, and that it will be ever so slightly shittier than a normal human because it lacks any sort of foresight or higher level reasoning, and as a result the world will be just a little bit shittier for everyone.

Doubtful. I think you are not seeing the forest for the trees. Did GPT-2 take you by surprise in 2019? How about GPT-3 in 2020, barely a year later. Did you know what it was going to be capable of when it released? The whole point of all of this discussion is that you seem to be the only one who believes that very little improvement will accrue to our efforts at AI in the balance of this decade. I suspect that it will transcend human intelligence as early as the year 2027. It's not going to be "shitty". It's going to be beyond our 2023 "stone-knives-and-bear-skins-primitive" imagination, compared to what will be the ground truth in the year 2025.

Just out of curiosity, what year do you believe humanity will achieve AGI? 2025 which I predict NLT, 2030, 2045, 2060, never? I think you are massively underestimating the improvement of these narrow-ish AIs. I'm not sure why. Could be some kind of defensiveness or denial. And that is understandable from the perspective of the human condition. But bear in mind that there is an abyss of difference between an AGI and an EI, that is "emergent intelligence". An AGI is just more fancy computing that can do lots of different things. It has a level of computing that allows it to understand the laws of physics and probably based on that, what we would regard as common sense. Consciousness and self-awareness not necessary. An EI is a new form of sentience in the universe (our portion of the multiverse), conscious and self-aware. We need to work very hard to avoid bringing about an EI.

Take a look at this. I wrote it when I was wondering how we can make an AI be "motivated" to do something.

https://www.reddit.com/user/izumi3682/comments/9786um/but_whats_my_motivation_artificial_general/

Informed opinions are always more valuable, especially when she makes technical claims like:

> But GPT-4 and other large language models like it are simply mirroring databases of text — close to a trillion words for the previous model — whose scale is difficult to contemplate. Helped along by an army of humans reprograming it with corrections, the models glom words together based on probability. That is not intelligence.

Does your mind really function this way? Deflect all challenges with insults to intelligence and vague airs of intellectual superiority?

We can walk and run, but our walking and running mechanics are built for persistence hunting. Is that the most useful way legs can be designed? What if we want something that can move faster? We certainly cannot fly or swim or dig very fast, which is why we use tools to get around those limitations. Wouldn't those be useful functions? Are our human legs compatible with a design focused around having those additional functions?

We can certainly go up stairs, but stairs are a human construct built to suit our human needs. Why walk up stairs if you can fly or stick to walls?

Dexterous manipulators.. See, the thing about fingers is they're pretty big at times and pretty small at other times. Wouldn't it be more useful to have variable manipulators that can change size? What about a manipulator that can soften to mould around/inside an object being grabbed and then harden once the desired shape is reached? This form of manipulation would essentially be an all-purpose screwdriver, among many other things.

Is the human hand REALLY that efficient at manipulation, or is it the best that we currently know because we haven't spent much time thinking about it?

Humanoid robots fit right into existing infrastructure, true. You know what else fits right into existing infrastructure? Cats and dogs. They also have the advantage of being much smaller. They even have limbs, too! Past that, though, we don't need to be confined to building copies of animals.

> Billions of years of evolution can't be wrong... or can it.... Only a redditor could suggest otherwise haha

This is pure brain rot and shows a failure of understanding of what the process of evolution is. Human-level sentient species could theoretically have come about any number of ways, and those other ways could theoretically be much more effective and well-equipped at navigating our current human society than we are. We aren't a species that is perfectly fit to our environment, we are a species that passes the bar of "Bare minimum for perpetuation within an environment". And even then, we have no idea if our ability to perpetuate ourselves will extend any further than it already has. You are making a lot of assumptions here.

The way I see it, you're out to prove your intelligence on reddit for some reason. I hope you find what you need because constantly comparing your own competence and intelligence to that of other people isn't a good place to be. Ask yourself why you value intelligence so much.

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Well it is an opinion piece that raises a very interesting question which doesn't/shouldn't restrict a discussion.

The author has a Bachelors Degree in Journalism and Sociology and has only been a technology writer for two years.

I doubt she is qualified to say there is no such thing as AI.

What really is AI? Are we actually looking at intelligence or just software that can gleen information off the internet better.

A man can dream haha. I'm partial to multiple rounds of treatment personally. We ID the mutations to target, rip up those cancer cells, then target the remaining ones with different mutations. No chemo/ radiation side effects. It will not be a one-and-done. Will require multiple rounds to take down all of them. The goal is to avoid other treatment modalities completely to avoid their horrific side effects

A smart robot probably would recognize itself in the mirror, but I don't think that's really enough to prove that it's conscious the same way we are. The problem is that everyone experiences the world through their own body so we can't truly put ourselves in someone else's shoes and see and feel what they do. There's no way for me to even know for certain that other humans are conscious, I can only assume that based on us being the same species. A robot may have the appearance of being conscious, but it could be fake. Like a marionette being pulled on strings by its programming. Or like a character written into a story except that this character is being written in real-time by computer algorithms based on things happening around it. Someone might argue that humans are similar to that too, but the point is that puppets and fictional characters aren't conscious even though they may appear as such and a robot could be the same way.

I think we'd have to do more research and understand how the brain and electrical signals in our bodies work to determine if a machine is conscious.

lol you're right.

people don't understand the difference between language models based on machine learning and neural networks from real conscience.

What makes you think a modern AI can not solve this problem?

So I gave your question to chatgpt and all its guesses were spot on.

And this was its answer on how it would drive there - all perfectly sensible.

And this is the worst it will ever be - the AI agents are only going to get smarter and smarter.

To be fair, I thought i was on /r/singularity where people are generally a bit smarter 😅

Only left the original comment cause I was surprised to see such a midwit take on that sub (my mistake).

I think you're not quite connecting the dots on the analogy. I'm not suggesting a smartphone is a human (? 🤣)

Anyway it is certainly possible that the people actually working on this are all wrong and you're right.... but I kinda doubt that.... 😆 (ego check required!)

It's not that we won't continue to have specialized robots working in factories. It's just that, in the real world, what better form than what already adapted to operate in it in a general fashion? (Ding ding the human form)

We can walk, run, go up stairs, climb, manipulate tools... oh about tools.... crazy thing is those were all developed for human use too!

Humanoid robots fit right into existing infrastructure.

Now I'm not suggesting they should or will function EXACTLY like us. But you sure can bet they'll have dexterous legs and dexterous manipulators (we could call them... arms... and hands!)

Billions of years of evolution can't be wrong... or can it.... Only a redditor could suggest otherwise haha

You make good points. I considered that the increase in aerosols for that projection might have influenced the net-zero date, but I see from the 1900's comparison graphs that they have a lesser relative effect.

Liquid water absorbs radiation and converts it into heat; snow / white ice reflects a bunch of radiation back out.

Once a region melts, it's tough to reverse it. It's kind of a feedback loop.

It's gonna still snow and shit, but have more and more liquid water

You paint all AI with the same brush. Many AI systems are as dumb as you say because they are specialized to only do a narrow range of tasks. GPT-4 is not that kind of AI.

AI pattern matching can do things that only AI and humans can do. Its not as simple as you imply. It doesn't just search some database and find a response to a similar question. There is no database if raw data inside it.

Please go see what people are already doing with these systems. Better yet, go to the sections on problem solving in the following paper and look at these examples: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12712

Your assumptions and ideas of AI are years out of date.

We can't get people to put masks on. Your point is definitely proven.

Just put Mile Wide Recycled Plastic Space Balloons In Orbit Over the North and South Poles. The Shade they Cast in the Summer months will have the Ice Caps grown back in a Jiffy.

☀️🎈🌎🥶 (Not to Scale) ✌️

Upside? Taking my job? It won't aid, it will replace

If you need a detailed explanation about AI takeoff scenarios (although a good 10 years old so pre GPT) here you go:

https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf

You understand a smartphone does not look like a human, right?

If there are any efforts towards making a "human robot", in my estimation it's out of emotional attachment to our species rather than for any functional purpose.

There's likely a reason every single robot we've ever made does not look or function like a human being, and any "general purpose" bots we have ever made follow that same rule. Humans don't seem to be very good at many things.

You seem to have a fairly high opinion of yourself, and I'm unconvinced that it's justified. Remember, you are also on reddit, and projection of one's own fears is a very insidious force.

>There's a reason Tesla is doing their humanoid bot. There's a reason Boston dynamics is doing a humanoid bot. There's a reason every single entity working on this is doing humanoid bots.

"There's a reason". Ah, of course. How enlightening. Thank you for your input. Here I was believing in uncaused causes.