Recent comments in /f/IAmA

wsj OP t1_j6ychk5 wrote

Trying to pinpoint when a bubble is happening in real time is notoriously difficult. It's usually only obvious in hindsight. That doesn't stop investment firms or researchers from trying. The Dallas Fed, for example, has a metric tracking exuberance in the housing market based on price-to-rent, price-to-income, and real house prices which has signaled exuberance in the housing market since 2020. But this metric identifies when buyers and sellers are exuberant and not necessarily when and by how much prices will come down when the exuberance is over.

The best indication of the trend for home prices going forward are fundamentals that drive supply and demand and an indicator of how in- or out-of-balance the current housing market is. Several indicators tell us that the 2022 housing market started off with a record imbalance of demand far-outstripping supply. As mortgage rates rose, we saw market-balance shift away from sellers and suppliers, toward buyers, but still, even as we start 2023 and the number of homes for sale is up more than 65% compared to a year ago, there are more than 40% fewer homes than was common at this time of year in the 2017-2019 pre-pandemic housing market.

Home buyers have more negotiating power and leeway than they've had over the past few years, but compared to most prior periods, the housing market still remains relatively under-supplied.

-Danielle

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wsj OP t1_j6yc3wd wrote

I hear several topics wrapped in the question, TXKAP... :) On a less bleak note, demographics play an important role in housing, but not the only dominant role. Cost of construction (materials, labor, fees, etc.), financing (interest rates), labor markets (wages and incomes) and importantly, land zoning, also play major roles in the availability of affordable homes. After all, when boomers came of age, the construction industry offered a NEW home for every budget, from low-cost Sears homes, which were boxed and trucked to the build site, to a large volume of master-planned suburban communities, and all the way to high-end custom homes. And those were in addition to the existing home supply.

However, in most municipalities, zoning regulations were redesigned in the 1970-1990s, which created artificial barriers and elevated the costs of development. Many of those zoning regulations remain on the books today, even though the US population has grown significantly since then.

On top of this, we overlay the impact of the 2008-09 housing bust, when a large number of local and regional construction firms left the industry. The net effect has been a significant underbuilding over the past decade and a half, just as the millennial generation came of home-buying age. With less supply and a lot more demand, not surprisingly, we ended up with much higher prices.

In brief, we could have more affordable housing today if we made a more concerted effort, at the local level, to adjust zoning and work with developers and construction companies to meet the level of population growth we’ve experienced. We are seeing movement in that direction, along with some technological innovation (e.g. 3D-printed homes). In fact, just the past week, a company managed to push concrete-printing to a second-story for a home in Houston.
Moreover, modular housing technology has also come a long way with some great products. But financing for modular/prefab homes remains stuck in past decades. We can do better on that end, as well.
I believe that we can still enjoy our boomer parents and grandparents AND build more affordable housing. - George

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wsj OP t1_j6yc17z wrote

Household formation is an important long-term indicator of housing demand for both rental and for-sale housing. But household formation is also affected by affordability, because people make different choices based on what they can afford. There was strong demand for all types of housing in late 2020 and 2021. Many millennials were entering their prime first-time home-buying years, and a strong job market and remote work enabled people to seek more space. But in 2022, rising mortgage-interest rates and high rents have weighed on demand. More people are doubling up with roommates, and home prices and rents are now falling in some markets.

-Nicole

edit: added gift links

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TheBenjamin8 t1_j6yajrd wrote

Hi yall, thanks for doing this! I'm a co-founder at House Numbers and follow Nicole on Twitter (really appreciate her unbiased & evidence-based reporting!). These Qs are all of you...
What's your take on rent control, specifically its effectiveness and impact as a long-term solution to housing affordability?
Also, I am (we are) passionate about homeownership among the US middle class. Recently, there's been a ton of press about how it's under threat (investment banks, iBuyers, general affordability issues). How do you perceive this threat? (is it real?, is it overblown?, etc). I've seen some reports that show homeownership is historically stable but I'm curious your thoughts!
Thank you in advance!
- Ben (co-founder, https://housenumbers.io)

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wsj OP t1_j6ya254 wrote

Intelligent_Bat7377 - Tampa has seen a noticeable influx of new residents over the last few years, which has pushed demand for housing higher, along with prices. This trend only accelerated in the pandemic period. In the fourth quarter of 2022, over 45% of home shoppers looking to buy in the Tampa metro were from out-of-state.

In tandem with the surge in demand, construction has focused mostly in the higher price tiers, with a lot of new properties being priced above the median. This has also come against a backdrop of undersupply from the past decade. The net effect has been that prices and rents have increased. Median list prices in Tampa rose by double-digits from April 2021 until October 2022. Even last month, list prices were still 7% higher than last year.

While new construction is beneficial for the supply pipeline, and should help tame the pace of rent growth, the fact that most new homes carry higher prices will keep pressure on rents in the short term. - George

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redditsonodddays t1_j6y9kcd wrote

(Not the IAMA dude) It really depends on your preferences in music and drama in general. Operas do cover a wide gamut of styles.

I would personally recommend

  • Wozzeck or Lulu, by Berg (dark, psychotic, gritty) - there are great versions in English on Spotify

> Wozzeck is about a melancholic/mentally ill soldier who suspects his wife is cheating

> Lulu tells the story of a young girl’s downfall from upper class living to murder and prostitution

  • Susannah, by Floyd (southern/folk, melodramatic)

> Susannah sets the apocryphal biblical story “Susannah and the Wise Elders” into pre-civil war Kentucky. A small town community wrongly accuses a sweetly innocent orphan teen of harlotry. A traveling preacher attempts to grapple with her sin, and finds his own downfall.

  • Carmen, by Bizet (boisterous, European)

> A comedic tragedy, Carmen tells the story of a soldier who is seduced into abandoning family and duty for a traveling woman.

  • Don Giovanni, by Mozart (clever, lush and fantastic)

> An adaptation of Don Juan, a beautiful and strong man engages in criminal mischief until the supernatural world intervenes.

  • Highlights of Wagner’s Ring,

> Der Ring des Ninelungen comprises four gigantic operas telling an epic story of gods villains and heroes. Drawing on various Germanic legends, the story begins when a dwarf steals enchanted gold from immature mermaids who were duty bound to protect it. From it he forges an all powerful ring, which becomes the envy and desire of the mortal and immortal planes.

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TXKAP t1_j6y9d1s wrote

Over the past three years, most homeowners in my community have seen their home values increase by more than what they make at their place of employment, which means it's been more economical to own a housing asset than it has been to work a 40-hour week job...

Have elevated real estate values impacted employee participation rates? And if so, does this mean the Fed is actively trying to decrease RE values so that people return to the workforce?

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