Recent comments in /f/IAmA

CoversJLo OP t1_j6yhjtz wrote

Same thing they've done all year: get out to an early lead. Philly has been so good out of the blocks and in first halves, that opponents have to abandon their playbook and go pass-heavy to catch up. The Eagles' run game then chokes them out in the 2H, grinding out first downs on the ground and eating up the clock/possession. When KC does have the ball, you've got to protect against any deeper passes and limit Mahomes to short/intermediate throws and get good pressure with the front four, which Philly has done all year. Easier said than done however.

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wsj OP t1_j6yglah wrote

The iBuying model is predicated on the assumption that a firm or a group of investors can find value in a given market, and through marginal investment (fixing what's broken or outdated) can extract that value by selling for a higher price. In that process, investors can and have leveraged cash as a negotiation tactic, offering less than comparable properties in exchange for speed and ease to buyers who either had a lot of equity and/or were in a hurry.
These assumptions work very well in an up-market, where the rising tide lifts all boats (houses). The real test for iBuyers is a market downturn, when properties which were acquired at a high price no longer command those lofty prices, and when operating costs (taxes, utilities, etc) start to pile up. As we've seen this past year in the case of several well-known companies that existed the iBuying model, a market downturn can wreak havoc on the best-designed models.
In answer to your question, yes, iBuying can impact a local market, especially if investors buy a large share of homes in a given geography. The activity can drive prices higher and make it challenging for individuals or families to get a foot in the door at a more affordable price.
I see equity investor participation (large funds with available cash) in housing to continue in the future, as long as return remain attractive. At the same time, I see a smaller number of strict iBuying transactions taking place. - George

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Rolly_Polly_ t1_j6yfzjy wrote

I am a soprano from Europe and currently I have been told that getting auditions with an opera theatre if one doesn't have an agent are almost non existent.

As a representative of an opera company, does that seem accurate at least in your theatre?

I am 35 years old, have finished my masters and currently trying to decide on the best direction to proceed. Would it be the better option to focus more on contacting agencies rather than theatres? Normally I would look at YAPs, but age is a very restrictive factor here.

I would love to hear your input on this. Thank you so much!

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CoversJLo OP t1_j6yffdz wrote

The quick version of this is a legal book would be licensed, regulated and monitored under a gaming control board (state by state) in a state that allows for sports betting. An illegal book wouldn't be licensed and fall under those regulations or would be operating/taking money in a state that doesn't allow for betting. These illegal books are usually operated outside of the country's borders, like offshore. We have a great industry news page on Covers that gets into all the ins and outs of this.

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wsj OP t1_j6yfacs wrote

I talked to a lot of economists last year about the 2023 market, and everyone agreed that the range of forecasts was unusually wide. One thing everyone agreed on is that there’s going to be significant regional variation. Unlike in 2021 and 2022, where basically every market in the U.S. showed strong price growth, economists expected some markets to slow far more than others this year. For the most part, the markets where prices rose the most during the recent boom are also expected to post the steepest price declines.

And remember, the housing market is in a much stronger position today than during the housing boom and bust of the early 2000s. In many markets, even a 20% home-price drop would not bring prices back to pre-pandemic levels, so many homeowners would still have equity.

-Nicole

edit: added gift links

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wsj OP t1_j6yem5x wrote

The concern about housing being in a bubble has dominated a lot of conversations over the past couple of years, especially as people referenced the 2005-07 period as a baseline. While the two periods are not alike (2005-07 saw significant oversupply, no-doc no-income loans, subprime/Alt-A loans and loose underwriting), we did see a similar run-up in prices. With the government response to the pandemic adding a massive dose of fiscal stimulus, in addition to the monetary response from the Fed, liquidity in the housing market became generous and we saw historically-low mortgage rates. Naturally, with “cheap money” it was easy to bid up prices on a limited number of homes for sale.

And as mortgage rates doubled this past year, we’ve also seen the correction in prices. As of January 2023, we’ve seen median list prices decline 11% across the country. That being said, current economic and market fundamentals do not point to a burst/crash. Employment remains solid, with most people who have a job seeing wage gains. We have 11 million open jobs and half as many unemployed people looking to fill them. Mortgage rates have been sliding from the 7%+ in October/November. In addition, there are still markets in the US where demand for housing remains robust.

Importantly, we still have a housing market which is undersupplied. By Realtor.com’s calculation [https://www.realtor.com/research/us-housing-supply-gap-nov-2022/], the gap between the number of new households which were formed in the last 10 years (population growth) and new homes constructed is above 5 million. With that shortage, as long as the economy remains resilient, given the number of millennials, and now also Gen Z in the 26-35 age group, I expect demand for housing to remain solid.

Yes, the record-low rates which fueled overheated prices are behind us, and we’re seeing that correction take place. At the same time, it would take a combination of deep recession with massive job losses plus major new construction inflows to inflict a steeper correction on home prices. Bottom line, I expect to see more divergence in pricing and market dynamics based on geography and location, meaning, some markets will see prices decline while others may still see growth this year. - George

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wsj OP t1_j6yeg1g wrote

You're right about the variety of predictions. Ours are on the stronger end for 2023. The full 2023 housing forecast and economic forecast are linked, but I'll summarize some key takeaways.

  1. We expect inflation to slow, but not return to its target which means that the Fed keeps rates higher for most of the year.

  2. This keeps upward pressure on mortgage rates (though admittedly, we've seen more weakness in rates for 2023 than we initially expected).

  3. Because mortgage rates and home prices remain relatively high, sales decline. Our expectation is that sales for 2023 will be down 14%, which would actually put them slightly above the pace we've seen in recent months.

  4. Slowing home sales will help curtail price growth, but we expect to see home sellers pull back from the market in 2023, which will keep home prices from adjusting quickly, and we expect them to grow in 2023.

The 2023 housing market is not going to be as strong as we've seen over the past few years from either a sales or price growth perspective, but I do think it will surprise those expecting a crash.

-Danielle

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LaterWendy t1_j6ye91v wrote

Was curious on your thoughts/studies about ibuyers and how they impact the housing market?

I believe they are making it harder for homebuyers (increased pricing, manipulation of pricing when purchase power increases in one area, less willing to lower pricing, not sharing true property sales history on websites, selling over 20% of properties to investors (with almost half of those being off market).

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wsj OP t1_j6ydvpb wrote

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did call the recent housing market boom a bubble last year.

“You had housing prices going up at very unsustainable levels and overheating,” he said at a Nov. 30 event. “Now the housing market’s going to go through the other side of that and hopefully come out in a better place.”

-Nicole

edit: added gift links

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