Recent comments in /f/IAmA
CoversJLo OP t1_j6yhjtz wrote
Reply to comment by DrJawn in I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
Same thing they've done all year: get out to an early lead. Philly has been so good out of the blocks and in first halves, that opponents have to abandon their playbook and go pass-heavy to catch up. The Eagles' run game then chokes them out in the 2H, grinding out first downs on the ground and eating up the clock/possession. When KC does have the ball, you've got to protect against any deeper passes and limit Mahomes to short/intermediate throws and get good pressure with the front four, which Philly has done all year. Easier said than done however.
AnotherDrunkCanadian t1_j6yhav5 wrote
Reply to comment by CoversJLo in I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
Yeah, thats the guy. Like... its just lucky bullshit, right? Kinda like if you do a million coin tosses, you'll eventually get 10 heads in a row... but man... maybe he does have superhuman powers... I mean over and above the pickle jar thing
DrJawn t1_j6ygtrv wrote
Reply to I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
In your opinion, what do the Eagles need to do to win?
AnotherDrunkCanadian t1_j6ygsp2 wrote
Reply to comment by CoversJLo in I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
I'm asking about the famous octopus that predicted the super bowl winner
wsj OP t1_j6yglah wrote
Reply to comment by LaterWendy in We are real estate and housing economists Danielle Hale and George Ratiu and housing reporter Nicole Friedman, discussing affordability within the U.S. real estate market. Ask us anything! by wsj
The iBuying model is predicated on the assumption that a firm or a group of investors can find value in a given market, and through marginal investment (fixing what's broken or outdated) can extract that value by selling for a higher price. In that process, investors can and have leveraged cash as a negotiation tactic, offering less than comparable properties in exchange for speed and ease to buyers who either had a lot of equity and/or were in a hurry.
These assumptions work very well in an up-market, where the rising tide lifts all boats (houses). The real test for iBuyers is a market downturn, when properties which were acquired at a high price no longer command those lofty prices, and when operating costs (taxes, utilities, etc) start to pile up. As we've seen this past year in the case of several well-known companies that existed the iBuying model, a market downturn can wreak havoc on the best-designed models.
In answer to your question, yes, iBuying can impact a local market, especially if investors buy a large share of homes in a given geography. The activity can drive prices higher and make it challenging for individuals or families to get a foot in the door at a more affordable price.
I see equity investor participation (large funds with available cash) in housing to continue in the future, as long as return remain attractive. At the same time, I see a smaller number of strict iBuying transactions taking place. - George
CoversJLo OP t1_j6ygi5d wrote
Reply to comment by AnotherDrunkCanadian in I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
If we're talking the Octopus that picks games, I don't know if I can compete with that thing. They're crazy smart and can fit themselves into a pickle jar. I have a hard time getting into most cars.
Rolly_Polly_ t1_j6yfzjy wrote
Reply to I'm Yves Abel, Principal Conductor of the San Diego Opera. I’ve conducted all over the globe, and even got to work with the great Leonard Bernstein while in training. AMA! by sandiegoopera
I am a soprano from Europe and currently I have been told that getting auditions with an opera theatre if one doesn't have an agent are almost non existent.
As a representative of an opera company, does that seem accurate at least in your theatre?
I am 35 years old, have finished my masters and currently trying to decide on the best direction to proceed. Would it be the better option to focus more on contacting agencies rather than theatres? Normally I would look at YAPs, but age is a very restrictive factor here.
I would love to hear your input on this. Thank you so much!
CoversJLo OP t1_j6yfw3n wrote
Reply to comment by NHL_SUCKS_HARD in I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
The Bolts made the right move in dumping Lombardi and as a Cowboys fans, Kellen Moore comes with some positives as an OC. He should have Herbert slinging it all over the place. You guys just gotta stay healthy and hope Mahomes gets bored. GL!
CoversJLo OP t1_j6yfmwm wrote
Reply to comment by AnotherDrunkCanadian in I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
Are we talking about Octopus props (player scores TD/2pt) or that famous Octopus that predicted the Super Bowl winner?
CoversJLo OP t1_j6yffdz wrote
Reply to comment by PeanutSalsa in I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
The quick version of this is a legal book would be licensed, regulated and monitored under a gaming control board (state by state) in a state that allows for sports betting. An illegal book wouldn't be licensed and fall under those regulations or would be operating/taking money in a state that doesn't allow for betting. These illegal books are usually operated outside of the country's borders, like offshore. We have a great industry news page on Covers that gets into all the ins and outs of this.
wsj OP t1_j6yfacs wrote
Reply to comment by curious_newb_22015 in We are real estate and housing economists Danielle Hale and George Ratiu and housing reporter Nicole Friedman, discussing affordability within the U.S. real estate market. Ask us anything! by wsj
I talked to a lot of economists last year about the 2023 market, and everyone agreed that the range of forecasts was unusually wide. One thing everyone agreed on is that there’s going to be significant regional variation. Unlike in 2021 and 2022, where basically every market in the U.S. showed strong price growth, economists expected some markets to slow far more than others this year. For the most part, the markets where prices rose the most during the recent boom are also expected to post the steepest price declines.
And remember, the housing market is in a much stronger position today than during the housing boom and bust of the early 2000s. In many markets, even a 20% home-price drop would not bring prices back to pre-pandemic levels, so many homeowners would still have equity.
-Nicole
edit: added gift links
NHL_SUCKS_HARD t1_j6yevb0 wrote
Reply to I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
The Super Bowl has almost become an annoyance for me considering we are seeing my arch nemesis, the Chiefs play in the big game seemingly every year.
How far away are we from seeing the Chargers play in the Super Bowl one day?
[deleted] t1_j6yeu3f wrote
CoversJLo OP t1_j6yeqo4 wrote
Reply to comment by HarlemHeat721 in I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
Betting too much and on too much. Just because it's a big game doesn't mean you need to bet big. Always risk what you're comfortable losing and narrow down your wagers to the ones you feel best about.
wsj OP t1_j6yem5x wrote
Reply to comment by DrJawn in We are real estate and housing economists Danielle Hale and George Ratiu and housing reporter Nicole Friedman, discussing affordability within the U.S. real estate market. Ask us anything! by wsj
The concern about housing being in a bubble has dominated a lot of conversations over the past couple of years, especially as people referenced the 2005-07 period as a baseline. While the two periods are not alike (2005-07 saw significant oversupply, no-doc no-income loans, subprime/Alt-A loans and loose underwriting), we did see a similar run-up in prices. With the government response to the pandemic adding a massive dose of fiscal stimulus, in addition to the monetary response from the Fed, liquidity in the housing market became generous and we saw historically-low mortgage rates. Naturally, with “cheap money” it was easy to bid up prices on a limited number of homes for sale.
And as mortgage rates doubled this past year, we’ve also seen the correction in prices. As of January 2023, we’ve seen median list prices decline 11% across the country. That being said, current economic and market fundamentals do not point to a burst/crash. Employment remains solid, with most people who have a job seeing wage gains. We have 11 million open jobs and half as many unemployed people looking to fill them. Mortgage rates have been sliding from the 7%+ in October/November. In addition, there are still markets in the US where demand for housing remains robust.
Importantly, we still have a housing market which is undersupplied. By Realtor.com’s calculation [https://www.realtor.com/research/us-housing-supply-gap-nov-2022/], the gap between the number of new households which were formed in the last 10 years (population growth) and new homes constructed is above 5 million. With that shortage, as long as the economy remains resilient, given the number of millennials, and now also Gen Z in the 26-35 age group, I expect demand for housing to remain solid.
Yes, the record-low rates which fueled overheated prices are behind us, and we’re seeing that correction take place. At the same time, it would take a combination of deep recession with massive job losses plus major new construction inflows to inflict a steeper correction on home prices. Bottom line, I expect to see more divergence in pricing and market dynamics based on geography and location, meaning, some markets will see prices decline while others may still see growth this year. - George
CoversJLo OP t1_j6yej5u wrote
Reply to comment by CoversMike in I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
I didn't take KC live ML against the Niners a few years back. You knew they were coming back and outscored them 21-0 in the 4Q. I was dumb not to jump on the in-game odds.
wsj OP t1_j6yeg1g wrote
Reply to comment by curious_newb_22015 in We are real estate and housing economists Danielle Hale and George Ratiu and housing reporter Nicole Friedman, discussing affordability within the U.S. real estate market. Ask us anything! by wsj
You're right about the variety of predictions. Ours are on the stronger end for 2023. The full 2023 housing forecast and economic forecast are linked, but I'll summarize some key takeaways.
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We expect inflation to slow, but not return to its target which means that the Fed keeps rates higher for most of the year.
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This keeps upward pressure on mortgage rates (though admittedly, we've seen more weakness in rates for 2023 than we initially expected).
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Because mortgage rates and home prices remain relatively high, sales decline. Our expectation is that sales for 2023 will be down 14%, which would actually put them slightly above the pace we've seen in recent months.
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Slowing home sales will help curtail price growth, but we expect to see home sellers pull back from the market in 2023, which will keep home prices from adjusting quickly, and we expect them to grow in 2023.
The 2023 housing market is not going to be as strong as we've seen over the past few years from either a sales or price growth perspective, but I do think it will surprise those expecting a crash.
-Danielle
AnotherDrunkCanadian t1_j6ye9mi wrote
Reply to I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
You've likely heard about the octopus that had an incredible lucky win rate when it came to betting... what are your thoughts? How do you compare?
LaterWendy t1_j6ye91v wrote
Reply to We are real estate and housing economists Danielle Hale and George Ratiu and housing reporter Nicole Friedman, discussing affordability within the U.S. real estate market. Ask us anything! by wsj
Was curious on your thoughts/studies about ibuyers and how they impact the housing market?
I believe they are making it harder for homebuyers (increased pricing, manipulation of pricing when purchase power increases in one area, less willing to lower pricing, not sharing true property sales history on websites, selling over 20% of properties to investors (with almost half of those being off market).
PeanutSalsa t1_j6ye62z wrote
Reply to I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
What makes a sportsbook legal? What makes a sportsbook illegal?
CoversJLo OP t1_j6ye2fs wrote
Reply to comment by ColinMac0 in I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
I always toss something on water/clear, because I know there will be a jug of water on the sideline. It used to come up a lot, but you've got to think Gatorade has some deal in place now. So team colors would be live (Red/Green). Water is out there at 5/1.
HarlemHeat721 t1_j6ydzqj wrote
Reply to I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
What's the biggest mistake most people make when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl?
wsj OP t1_j6ydvpb wrote
Reply to comment by wsj in We are real estate and housing economists Danielle Hale and George Ratiu and housing reporter Nicole Friedman, discussing affordability within the U.S. real estate market. Ask us anything! by wsj
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did call the recent housing market boom a bubble last year.
“You had housing prices going up at very unsustainable levels and overheating,” he said at a Nov. 30 event. “Now the housing market’s going to go through the other side of that and hopefully come out in a better place.”
-Nicole
edit: added gift links
CoversJLo OP t1_j6ydtka wrote
Reply to comment by CoversJLo in I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
Given the injuries to the other KC WRs, his receptions and yardage props aren't live yet. I will be looking at his Overs if some WRs sit out.
reddit455 t1_j6yhl97 wrote
Reply to I am Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst and Professional Sports Bettor, AMA about the Super Bowl by CoversJLo
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If I were to bet on the winner today.. would the payout be the same if I placed the same bet in week 1?
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what's the most obscure thing people bet on (that's not directly related to action on the field including the coin toss)?